Sunday, May 04, 2008

The Weekend Box Office (5/2 - 5/4)

Box Office estimates are in and, no surprise, Marvel Studio's debut film Iron Man reigned, raking in over $100 million. This was my first month predicting box office figures, actually my first week, so how did I do?

Actual Box Office 5/2 - 5/4

1. Iron Man ($100.7 million)
2. Made of Honor ($15 million)
3. Baby Mama ($10 million)
4. Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($6.1 million)
5. Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay ($6 million)

Most predictions put Iron Man in the $70-80 million range, but I took a gamble and went high. For the other films in the top five, I looked at the history of similar movies.

My prediction for 5/2 - 5/4 (from Thursday afternoon)

1. Iron Man ($98 million)
2. Made of Honor ($15 million)
3. Baby Mama ($9 million)
4. Harold and Kumar Escape From Guantanamo Bay ($7 million)
5. Forgetting Sarah Marshall ($6.5 million)

Overall, not too shabby. I was off only $2 on Iron Man and nailed Made of Honor. Then I was $1 million off on both Harold and Kumar and Baby Mama, resulting in the bottom two film's swapped places. I knew Forgetting Sarah Marshall was going to hang on with its good word-of-mouth, but I didn't expect Harold and Kumar to plunge quite so much. An overall difference of $4 million between the prediction and actual numbers. Pretty damn good for a first-timer.

Iron Man reportedly cost $140 million to make, with a $50 million ad campaign. Factoring in the estimated $98 million it pulled in overseas over the weekend and the Thursday night receipts and the movie stands at a $202 million grossing over three days and a night, earning an extra $12 million over its costs right out of the gate. A great start to the film studio. I haven't seen the movie yet because of my work schedule, but I hope to very shortly. Rotten Tomatoes has it at a 94% fresh rating: out of 159 professional reviews, only ten did not recommend the film, a stellar number for a Hollywood blockbuster.

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